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development impact links

Weekly links Jan 19: soft skills and maybe a robot can’t take your job after all, the Starbucks indicator of Indian middle class growth, high fees are deterring citizenship, and more...

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  • On VoxEU, using Yelp data to track the local economy.
  • Ted Miguel on plans for long-term follow-ups of child health and cash transfer programs.
  • Priced out of citizenship? From Stanford News, with the cost of U.S. naturalization now $725, an experiment gave vouchers to cover these costs to low-income immigrants in NYC and found naturalization application rates rose 41%.
  • David Deming in the NBER reporter on the value of soft skills in the labor market: “the very term soft skills reveals our lack of understanding of what these skills are, how to measure them, and whether and how they can be developed... Social interaction is perhaps the most necessary workplace task for which there is currently no good machine substitute... Researchers ought to stop relying on convenient, off-the-shelf measures of soft skills and start creating metrics that are theoretically sound and suitable for the task at hand”

Weekly links Jan 12: Big Thinkers brought down to size, can you beat the World Bank at predicting poverty? Chinese minimum wage rises all get spent, three job openings, and more…

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  • Duncan Green summarizes Stefan Dercon’s view of 10 top thinkers in development. E.g. on Acemoglu and Robinson “their policy advice is just ‘buy yourself a better history/don’t start from here’. Not very useful for aid”. Alice Evans responds to the lack of women on Stefan’s list with five big problems in development and female scholars to learn from on these.
  • How did Chinese consumption respond to changes in the minimum wage? Dautovic and co-authors on VoxEU report that “For the period 2002-2009, we identify more than 13,874 changes in the local minimum wage across China's 2,183 counties and 285 cities…many counties experienced substantial nominal increases in their minimum wage above 20%...we show that low-income households spend their entire additional income from a higher minimum wage…for poorer households, 40% of the additional minimum wage income is spend on health care and educational expenditure”
  • Looking to try out machine learning for poverty prediction? The World Bank has launched a competition (with prize money) to see how well you can predict poverty.

Weekly links Jan 5: papers you should have read last year, how to measure early childhood development 147 ways, move people to where the jobs are, and more…

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Weekly links December 15: non-frivolous frivolous expenses, Indian internal borders, aspirations, and much more…

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Weekly links November 17: What’s new in trade research, fungibility is too painful to think about, an employment program that worked, and more…

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Weekly links November 10: how to properly pre-register, trade and inequality, surprising findings and more…

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  • Data Colada on how to properly pre-register a study: “it may be helpful to imagine a skeptical reader of your paper. Let’s call him Leif. Imagine that Leif is worried that p-hacking might creep into the analyses of even the best-intentioned researchers. The job of your preregistration is to set Leif’s mind at ease. This means identifying all of the ways you could have p-hacked – choosing a different sample size, or a different exclusion rule, or a different dependent variable, or a different set of controls/covariates, or a different set of conditions to compare, or a different data transformation – and including all of the information that lets Leif know that these decisions were set in stone in advance”…but on the other hand “it should contain only the information that is essential for the task at hand… We have seen many preregistrations that are just too long… you don’t need to say in the preregistration everything that you will say in the paper. A hard-to-read preregistration makes preregistration less effective…” – comes with a nice example table of what bad specifications and good specifications look like.

Weekly links November 3: posters against stunting, but are RCTs bad for kids? Publishing lab experiments and replications, and more…

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Weekly links October 20: is p-hacking jaywalking or bank-robbing? Why is African labor so expensive? Why do some nudges fail? & more …

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  • NYTimes piece on when the revolution came for Amy Cuddy about how the replicability crisis came to psychology, but also about the issues surrounding online critiques: “subjectivity — had burrowed its way into the field’s methodology more deeply than had been recognized. Typically, when researchers analyzed data, they were free to make various decisions, based on their judgment, about what data to maintain: whether it was wise, for example, to include experimental subjects whose results were really unusual or whether to exclude them; to add subjects to the sample or exclude additional subjects because of some experimental glitch. More often than not, those decisions — always seemingly justified as a way of eliminating noise — conveniently strengthened the findings’ results….Everyone knew it was wrong, but they thought it was wrong the way it’s wrong to jaywalk,” Simmons recently wrote in a paper taking stock of the field. “We decided to write ‘False-Positive Psychology’ when simulations revealed it was wrong the way it’s wrong to rob a bank”

Weekly links October 13: an anthropological rationale for randomization, what is Jholawala Economics?, changing norms, and more…

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  • Another reason to justify random selection – Michael Schulson in Aeon “there are plenty of situations when random chance really is your best option. And those situations might be far more prevalent in our modern lives than we generally admit.” An interesting discussion drawing on anthropology of how different cultures have introduced randomness into decision-making, with the advantage being that it stops you using bad reasons for making decisions. “we might want to come to terms with the reality of our situation, which is that our lives are dominated by uncertainty, biases, subjective judgments and the vagaries of chance”
  • Maitreesh Ghatak reviews Jean Dreze’s new book “Sense and Solidarity - Jholawala Economics for Everyone”. See also this twitter thread by Abhijeet Singh on whether Dreze is underappreciated in development economics.

Weekly links October 6: A Bridge too far for Jishnu, reducing recruiting information frictions, cash transfers in Niger, improving tax collection in Brazil, and more…

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  • On the future development blog, Jishnu Das discusses recent experiments on public-private provision of education in Liberia and Pakistan, takes on Bridge Academies, and highlights the importance of good measurement: “in Liberia, Romero et al. tracked students to ensure that schools could not “game” the evaluation by sending weaker children home: “We took great care to avoid differential attrition: Enumerators conducting student assessments participated in extra training on tracking and its importance, and dedicated generous time to tracking. Students were tracked to their homes and tested there when not available at school. Finding children who have left a school is like finding a needle in a haystack. In a country where only 42 percent have access to a cell phone, it’s heroism.”
  • On Straight Talk on Evidence, James Heckman and co-authors get taken to task for torturing data to overstate findings in a 2014 Science article on the long-term effects of the Abecedarian ECD program. Specific criticisms on sample size (and its reporting) and multiple comparisons. Response and a rejoinder follow the post...

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